Separate state polls here to stay, say analysts

By SHYAFIQ DZULKIFLI

PETALING JAYA: Separate state elections have become the new political reality in Malaysia, and the trend is likely here to stay, say analysts.

Political analyst Prof Dr Azizuddin Sani said state elections are increasingly being held separately from parliamentary elections.

The trend is a departure from the previous norm, when most states held their polls in sync with a general election.

Azizuddin said the 12th General Election (GE12) in 2008 led to significant political changes, particularly the change of government in several states.

This development gave state administrations greater incentive to call for elections separately from general elections.

"There's an element of strategy among political parties. They believe they have a better chance of winning state elections if they are held separately from the general election," he said.

The trend has become more pronounced following GE15 in 2022, which led to the formation of a unity government comprising several political parties.

He said the country’s political dynamics changed after GE15 as there was no longer a single dominant political party.

Political analyst Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said political parties and coalitions now realise that it has become harder to form governments on their own, at both federal and state levels.

He said state governments would therefore be inclined to call elections according to their own political interests, particularly when their political arrangements differed from those at the federal level.

"State governments will seek to dissolve their assemblies according to their own timetable and to their own advantage," he said.

Azmi said the trend was likely to continue as states each have their own political circumstances that would influence their decisions on when to hold elections.

He cited Johor, Melaka and Negri Sembilan as examples of how state-level considerations could shape election timing.

Melaka goes to the polls on Nov 14, while Negri Sembilan has held two state elections since GE15.

Meanwhile, Azizuddin said there was no guarantee that states such as Kedah, Kelantan, Penang, Selangor and Terengganu would seek to hold their next polls simultaneously with GE16.

He said the decision would depend on the political circumstances in each state, including whether simultaneous polls could reduce costs and improve a party's chances of winning.

He said a return to a more synchronised election cycle would be difficult under the current political landscape unless a single party regained dominance at both federal and state levels.

"Unless we have one party that dominates at the federal level and in almost all the states, I think we will continue to see separate state elections," he said.

On whether frequent elections could lead to voter fatigue, Azizuddin said the phenomenon could happen when polls were held close together.

However, he said that Malaysians are mostly still willing to take part in multiple polls in between general elections.

He noted that voter turnout in state elections was generally lower than in general elections.
Still, he pointed out that some of the state polls held following GE15 still drew a relatively high turnout.

This, he added, suggested that election fatigue was not the only factor affecting participation.

Azmi, meanwhile, said that each state had its own political circumstances and unique issues that mattered to its electorate.

“Voters in Johor, Negri Sembilan and Melaka, for instance, had many reasons to participate in their respective state elections because the outcomes would determine the political direction of their state governments,” he said.

Azizuddin also highlighted the financial implications of holding elections separately, saying political parties incurred substantial campaign expenses beyond the official costs of administering an election.

He said spending on campaign materials, publicity and transporting voters could add to the overall cost, although the full amount was difficult to quantify.

While synchronising state and federal elections could reduce some of these expenses, he said political parties were more likely to prioritise their chances of winning than potential savings.